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伊朗战争将触发千万亿美元金融衍生产品市场的崩盘

小编 资讯 发布时间:2019-12-03 阅读(1767 )

伊朗战争将触发千万亿美元金融衍生产品市场的崩盘

■ 来源 | 战略文化基金会

■ 作者 | 佩佩·埃斯科巴(著名国际地缘政治评论家)

美国对伊朗的“极限施压”迟早会遭遇“极限反压”。不详的火花注定要飞舞起来......

过去几天,欧亚大陆情报界一直在敦促德黑兰考虑一个非常简单的场景。既然“圣城旅”指挥官——五角大楼最讨厌的人卡西姆·苏莱曼尼(Qasem Soleimani)将军——在全球媒体上详细说明了华盛顿根本没有保持霍尔木兹海峡畅通的军事能力,那么(伊朗)也无需封锁霍尔木兹海峡。

正如我此前所言,封锁霍尔木兹海峡将引爆价值1200万亿美元的金融衍生品市场,进而摧毁美国经济,并导致全球银行体系崩溃,冲击GDP总规模80万亿美元的全球市场,引发前所未有的大萧条。

苏莱曼尼应该直言不讳地指出,如果禁止伊朗(主要销往亚洲的)每天至少200万桶的石油出口,那么伊朗就可能会封锁霍尔木兹海峡。在美国实施非法制裁和事实上的封锁之前,伊朗石油出口通常能够达到每天250万桶,而现在可能已降至仅有40万桶。

苏莱曼尼所言与IRGC(伊斯兰革命卫队)之前发出的信号一致。波斯湾被描述为即将成为一个“射击场”。侯赛因·萨拉米(Hossein Salami)准将强调,伊朗的弹道导弹能够精确打击美军的航空母舰,此外伊朗在波斯湾北岸还部署了反舰导弹——正如我从与IRGC相关的消息来源所证实的。

我们在封锁(海峡)前会让你们知道的

伊朗武装部队参联会主席穆罕默德·巴盖里(Mohammad Baqeri)少将直言:“如果伊朗决心阻止石油从波斯湾出口,我们国家及武装部队有力量确保这一决心能够完全实现”。

现实对美国是残酷的。德黑兰绝不会接受承受全面的经济战争——禁止其出口维持其经济生存的石油。霍尔木兹海峡的军事问题已经十分清楚了,伊朗可以封锁海峡,而美国无力阻止。所以现在需要研究的是(一旦海峡被封锁)金融衍生品市场将出现怎样的变化。

伊朗可以向全球媒体展示详细的金融衍生品与军事对峙的关系,西方为主的媒体集团一定会立刻去找沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)求证。所以如果两者之前有强烈的相关性,苏莱曼尼应该重点强调这一点,并建议媒体去采访沃伦•巴菲特。(如此一来,全世界明白了美国制裁带来的巨大风险,就不会支持美国对伊朗的制裁)

爆发衍生品危机的可能性是华盛顿共识机构极为忌讳的话题。根据我在美国银行业的消息来源,一位可能知情的瑞士银行家非正式地表示,受到波及的衍生品范围高达1200万亿美元。(国际清算银行(BIS)——中央银行的中央银行——就位于瑞士巴塞尔)

霍尔木兹海峡是如何封锁的并不重要。

这可能是一个假信号。或者伊朗政府觉得自己可能会受到攻击,所以主动让一两艘货船沉没。不过重要的是最终结果;根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的预测,任何扰乱能源运输的情况,都将导致油价升至每桶200美元、500美元甚至1000美元。

另一位美国银行业消息人士解释道:

分析的关键是衍生产品所谓的名义价值。这种价值一般会很高,但仅存在于名义上,只有当概率极小的违约发生时才能兑现,所以在实际中经常毫无价值。但在危机中,名义值可以兑现。例如,如果我以每桶300美元的价格买入100万桶石油的看涨期权,我的成本不会很高,因为人们认为价格会达到这么高是不可想象的。这是名义上的。但如果海峡被封锁,这个惊人的数字就可能成真。”(卖方可能因赔不出这么多钱而破产)

国际清算银行表明衍生品标记合约的未偿名义总额估计为542.4万亿美元。但这也仅是一个估计而已。(实际值可能高达千万亿美元以上)

这位银行业消息人士补充称:“即使此处的名义值有意义,巨额的利率衍生品大多数也只是名义上的,但如果油价升至每桶1000美元,那么石油产值将占全球GDP的45%,而这将极大地抬高利率,形成所谓的“或有负债”(注:指因过去的交易或事项可能导致未来所发生的事件而产生的潜在负债)。(一旦名义上的负债转变为真实负债,出售衍生品的机构就可能破产)

高盛预计,如果霍尔木兹海峡封锁长达几周,油价可能达到每桶1000美元。这个数字乘以每天1亿桶的石油产量,产值将占到全球80万亿美元GDP中的45%。不言而喻,仅此一点,世界经济就必然会崩溃。

战争的走狗狂吠不止

全球多达30%的石油供应要经过波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡。精明的波斯湾商人——他们的消息更灵通——的判断几乎是一致的;如果德黑兰真的要对阿曼湾油轮事件负责,那么油价现在应该已经飞涨了。然而并没有。(所以袭击并非伊朗所为)

伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的领海为12海里(22公里)。自1959年以来,伊朗只承认军舰以非军事用途通过海峡。

并且自1972年以来,阿曼在霍尔木兹海峡的领海也达到了12海里。而海峡最窄处的宽度仅为21海里(39公里)。这意味着至关重要的一点,即霍尔木兹海峡水域的一半属于伊朗领海,另一半属于阿曼领海。没有“国际水域”可供通航。

所以德黑兰即使要封锁霍尔木兹海峡,也是合法行为,完全可以公开进行封锁,而不用偷偷摸摸的。

伊朗对美国的任何间接、不对称的反击都将使美国非常痛苦。德黑兰大学的默罕默德·马兰迪(Mohammad Marandi )教授再次证实,“即使(伊朗)只是进行有限的反击,也会造成大规模的、不成比例的报复影响。“这意味着美伊双方会彻底撕破脸。用马兰迪的话来说,从真正炸毁油轮,到“沙特和阿联酋的石油设施起火”,任何事情都有可能发生。

真主党将向以色列发射数万枚导弹。正如真主党秘书长哈桑·纳斯鲁拉(Hasan Nasrallah)在讲话中强调的那样,“对伊朗的战争不会仅停留在该国境内,而是意味着整个(中东)地区将被点燃。”美国及其同谋在该地区的所有军队和利益都将被消灭,首先就是以色列和沙特统治者家族。”

密切关注以色列情报部门的言论是很有启发性的。因为战争的走狗总是狂吠不止。

本周早些时候,美国国务卿迈克•蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)飞往坦帕的中央司令部(CENTCOM),与持怀疑态度的将军们讨论“地区安全关切和正在进行的行动”,这是最终将导致对伊朗战争的“极限施压”的委婉说法。

伊朗已经通过外交手段谨慎地告知欧盟与瑞士,他们有能力摧毁整个世界经济。但这仍不足以使美国解除制裁。

战区

特朗普任期内的美国,以“我们说谎,我们欺骗,我们偷窃”闻名的前中央情报局局长迈克·蓬佩奥——美国的“最高外交官”——实际上在管理五角大楼。“代理”防长沙纳罕(Shanahan)已经出局。

蓬佩奥继续积极推销“情报机构确信”伊朗对阿曼湾油轮事件负有责任的观点。华盛顿充斥着在不久的将来会有一个不祥的双重任命谣言;蓬佩奥任五角大楼首脑,“精神病”约翰·博尔顿任国务卿。而这将意味着战争。

不过在火花开始飞溅之前,伊朗就可以宣布波斯湾处于战争状态;宣布霍尔木兹海峡为战区;然后禁止所有“敌对”的军事和民用船只驶入海峡属于伊朗的一侧。即使不开一枪一炮,也没有任何一家航运公司的油轮能够穿越波斯湾。

(小编的英文能力有限,欢迎各路大神阅读下方原文)

原文:

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Strategic Culture Foundation

Escobar: One Quadrillion Reasons Why Washington Fears Iran's "Maximum Counter-Pressure"

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Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Sooner or later the US “maximum pressure” on Iran would inevitably be met by “maximum counter-pressure”. Sparks are ominously bound to fly...

For the past few days, intelligence circles across Eurasia had been prodding Tehran to consider a quite straightforward scenario. There would be no need to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if Quds Force commander, General Qasem Soleimani, the ultimate Pentagon bête noire, explained in detail, on global media, that Washington simply does not have the military capacity to keep the Strait open.

Iran Shot Down a U.S. Drone. The Question Is: Where?

As I previously reported, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would destroy the American economy by detonating the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market; and that would collapse the world banking system, crushing the world’s $80 trillion GDP and causing an unprecedented depression.

Soleimani should also state bluntly that Iran may in fact shut down the Strait of Hormuz if the nation is prevented from exporting essential two million barrels of oil a day, mostly to Asia. Exports, which before illegal US sanctions and de facto blockade would normally reach 2.5 million barrels a day, now may be down to only 400,000.

Soleimani’s intervention would align with consistent signs already coming from the IRGC. The Persian Gulf is being described as an imminent “shooting gallery.” Brigadier General Hossein Salami stressed that Iran’s ballistic missiles are capable of hitting “carriers in the sea” with pinpoint precision. The whole northern border of the Persian Gulf, on Iranian territory, is lined up with anti-ship missiles – as I confirmed with IRGC-related sources.

We’ll let you know when it’s closed

Then, it happened.

Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, went straight to the point; “If the Islamic Republic of Iran were determined to prevent export of oil from the Persian Gulf, that determination would be realized in full and announced in public, in view of the power of the country and its Armed Forces.”

The facts are stark. Tehran simply won’t accept all-out economic war lying down – prevented to export the oil that protects its economic survival. The Strait of Hormuz question has been officially addressed. Now it’s time for the derivatives.

Presenting detailed derivatives analysis plus military analysis to global media would force the media pack, mostly Western, to go to Warren Buffett to see if it is true. And it is true. Soleimani, according to this scenario, should say as much and recommend that the media go talk to Warren Buffett.

The extent of a possible derivatives crisis is an uber-taboo theme for the Washington consensus institutions. According to one of my American banking sources, the most accurate figure – $1.2 quadrillion – comes from a Swiss banker, off the record. He should know; the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) – the central bank of central banks – is in Basle.

The key point is it doesn’t matter how the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

It could be a false flag. Or it could be because the Iranian government feels it’s going to be attacked and then sinks a cargo ship or two. What matters is the final result; any blocking of the energy flow will lead the price of oil to reach $200 a barrel, $500 or even, according to some Goldman Sachs projections, $1,000.

Another US banking source explains:

“The key in the analysis is what is called notional. They are so far out of the money that they are said to mean nothing. But in a crisis the notional can become real. For example, if I buy a call for a million barrels of oil at $300 a barrel, my cost will not be very great as it is thought to be inconceivable that the price will go that high. That is notional. But if the Strait is closed, that can become a stupendous figure.”

BIS will only commit, officially, to indicate the total notional amount outstanding for contracts in derivatives markers is an estimated $542.4 trillion. But this is just an estimate.

The banking source adds, “Even here it is the notional that has meaning. Huge amounts are interest rate derivatives. Most are notional but if oil goes to a thousand dollars a barrel, then this will affect interest rates if 45% of the world’s GDP is oil. This is what is called in business a contingent liability.”

Goldman Sachs has projected a feasible, possible $1,000 a barrel a few weeks after the Strait of Hormuz being shut down. This figure, times 100 million barrels of oil produced per day, leads us to 45% of the $80 trillion global GDP. It’s self-evident the world economy would collapse based on just that alone.

War dogs barking mad

As much as 30% of the world’s oil supply transits the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Wily Persian Gulf traders – who know better – are virtually unanimous; if Tehran was really responsible for the Gulf of Oman tanker incident, oil prices would be going through the roof by now. They aren’t.

Iran’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz amount to 12 nautical miles (22 km). Since 1959, Iran recognizes only non-military naval transit.

Since 1972, Oman’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz also amount to 12 nautical miles. At its narrowest, the width of the Strait is 21 nautical miles (39 km). That means, crucially, that half of the Strait of Hormuz is in Iranian territorial waters, and the other half in Oman’s. There are no “international waters”.

And that adds to Tehran now openly saying that Iran may decide to close the Strait of Hormuz publicly – and not by stealth.

Iran’s indirect, asymmetric warfare response to any US adventure will be very painful. Prof. Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran once again reconfirmed, “even a limited strike will be met by a major and disproportionate response.” And that means gloves off, big time; anything from really blowing up tankers to, in Marandi’s words, “Saudi and UAE oil facilities in flames”.

Hezbollah will launch tens of thousands of missiles against Israel. As Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hasan Nasrallah has been stressing in his speeches, “war on Iran will not remain within that country’s borders, rather it will mean that the entire [Middle East] region will be set ablaze. All of the American forces and interests in the region will be wiped out, and with them the conspirators, first among them Israel and the Saudi ruling family.”

It’s quite enlightening to pay close attention to what this Israel intel op is saying. The dogs of war though are barking mad.

Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo jetted to CENTCOM in Tampa to discuss “regional security concerns and ongoing operations” with – skeptical – generals, a euphemism for “maxim pressure” eventually leading to war on Iran.

Iranian diplomacy, discreetly, has already informed the EU – and the Swiss – about their ability to crash the entire world economy. But still that was not enough to remove US sanctions.

War zone in effect

As it stands in Trumpland, former CIA Mike “We lied, We cheated, We stole” Pompeo – America’s “top diplomat” – is virtually running the Pentagon. “Acting” secretary Shanahan performed self-immolation. Pompeo continues to actively sell the notion the “intelligence community is convinced” Iran is responsible for the Gulf of Oman tanker incident. Washington is ablaze with rumors of an ominous double bill in the near future; Pompeo as head of the Pentagon and Psycho John Bolton as Secretary of State. That would spell out War.

Yet even before sparks start to fly, Iran could declare that the Persian Gulf is in a state of war; declare that the Strait of Hormuz is a war zone; and then ban all “hostile” military and civilian traffic in its half of the Strait. Without firing a single shot, no shipping company on the planet would have oil tankers transiting the Persian Gulf.

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